["21 April 2025 trades"]

Thesis

[Short Nasdaq‑100 futures (NQ Jun 25)

– “Sell America”





Why I care



Trump’s public threat to can Powell torched both the buck and index futures this morning. Investors are suddenly pricing in a credibility crisis at the Fed and flirting with recession odds.  
Tech is already wobbling on tariffs and earnings misses; momentum’s negative and breadth is hideous.




Trigger



1‑hour close beneath 18 150 (just under Friday’s low and the 50‑DMA on the hourly). That completes a little head‑and‑shoulders‑ish formation and opens the trapdoor.




Plan

piece

level

Entry

18 100 ± 20 pts

Stop

18 600 (above neckline & 20‑DMA)

Target

17 300 (200‑DMA / January gap)

Sizing

One Micro‑NQ (MNQ) contract moves $2/pt. Risk = 500 pts × $2 = $1 000 – bang on 1 % of a $100 k book. Zero extra leverage needed; if you’re feistier, run two lots but keep the stop tight.









2️⃣  

Long Gold (XAU/USD)

– “Hide in shiny rocks”





Why I care



Spot just printed a fresh record $3 391/oz as the dollar buckled and everyone panicked over tariffs + Fed drama. That breakout hasn’t had time to exhaust yet.  
Central banks keep hoovering up bullion; geopolitical noise (Iran sanctions, Russia‑Ukraine simmer) is a tail‑wind.  




Trigger



Any dip to $3 360‑3 380 that holds an hourly 20‑EMA, or simply a fresh 1‑hour high above $3 400 if you prefer chasing.




Plan

piece

level

Entry

$3 375

Stop

$3 300 (below last breakout shelf)

Target

$3 500 (round‑number magnet, measured‑move of prior leg)

Sizing

A full COMEX contract is 100 oz → $75/oz risk × 100 = $7 500 (too spicy). Use ¼ contract or a micro‑gold future (MGC, 10 oz) where risk is ~$750; that’s < 1 %. Alternatively, in spot, size so $75/oz = 1 %.



Leverage suggestion: max 3 : 1 notional (gold can spike $100 overnight).



Short USD/JPY

– “Yen revenge

BOJ looks content to talk hikes next week, while U.S. political meddling crushes the dollar.  
The pair sliced through trend support at 142 in Asian trade; safe‑haven flows love the yen when Wall St trembles.




Trigger



Retest & fail of 142.0‑141.8 (old support, now resistance) on a 15‑min chart.




Plan

piece

level

Entry

141.80

Stop

143.20 (above broken trend + 50‑HMA)

Target

138.50 (March swing low & 200‑DMA)

Sizing

A standard 100 k lot: 140 pips risk ≈ $1 300 (1 pip ≈ $7). Trade ¾ lot to keep risk near $1 000. No margin heroics—2 : 1 leverage tops.









Quick‑fire risk discipline 





Keep every stop hard, no “I’ll see how it feels” nonsense.
If any position is up > 1.5 R by Thursday, trail the stop to breakeven and take half off.
Macro news bullets to watch: PMI flashes (Thu), BOJ outlook (Fri), and any fresh Trump‑tweet tantrum. Tighten stops during those windows.]

Entry

[entry 14:59 21.04.25]

Exit

[see above]

Commentary

[return.]